| | The refusal of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to draw conclusions from both moral and practical situation of barricades in Tripoli, with over half of his country (at least in terms population) fell into the hands of the opposition should not surprise anyone. In his 40 years in power in Libya has never given evidence or a strong moral or a practical instinct, except for what was the retention of his power.
The awakening of the Arab world, began just a month ago, continued to bring surprises. A particularly welcome to the writer, Saturday has come from a country far away from North Africa. And I believe that in a long-term, measured in decades, will bring major surprises to the European Union as a whole. But before we talk about the non-surprise. Since the beginning of the revolt in Tunisia, has often been said and written that the wave of protests in the Arab world was unexpected and unforeseen.
But the opposite is true, were predicted in all but its timing. Upheavals, including social and political revolutions have been predicted for the Arab world constantly, at least in the two previous decades. The problem is that these predictions were so frequent you bored by the public until the yawns, and go unnoticed at the end. I was surprised by the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Oman and other countries. But I realized that I should not be surprised when a former colleague, the Economist - where I worked from 1980 to 2006 - suggested I read a long "special" about the Arab world that their responsible for foreign policy, Peter David, published July 25, 2009. Titled "awakening from sleep," the article by David told of the "fever under the skin 'in most Arab countries, and cited numerous books and articles by other authors who have previously had reached the same conclusion. Once
you look at the facts, not so surprising that the revolution is now in place, but that has not happened before: during the 21 member countries of the Arab League, the population has doubled in the last 30 years, more than half the 360 \u200b\u200bmillion people who live there under 25 years. Arabs are increasingly urbanized, and thanks to satellite TV like Al Jazeera have qatariota increasing access to information. Yet, despite the oil and gas prices have remained high in recent years, the income of people are not increased, and political reforms have been almost non-existent. Nobody, least of all the elderly dictators and their cronies who ruled these countries, should be surprised by the spread of protests and revolutions.
For this reason, if in the future, this movement has not espandesse west, to Algeria and Morocco, and east, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, we should consider just such a surprise. As Central and Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the insurgency will not necessarily expanding democracy and not be able to finally bring down the regimes everywhere. But the pressure that will cause no longer be able to ignore.
The surprise came on Saturday but the decision of the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on the regime of Gaddafi, freeze assets, and to refer the Colonel to the International Criminal Court (ICC). As welcome and appropriate, these decisions are little more than gestures, given that the murderess has barricaded Gaddafi in Tripoli and is too weak at this moment by the freezing of its assets or the travel ban. The true meaning of the resolution, however, lies in the unanimity in the Security Council, and especially in the support, albeit lukewarm, China. Who nevertheless voted to refer the Colonel to the ICC for having treated his opponents in much the same way that Beijing intervened in 1989 against the uprising in Tiananmen Square. The Chinese army fired on the crowd from bridges and from helicopters and fighters, but there is little doubt that Deng Xiaoping, who then ruled China, would not hesitate to resort to even more massive force if need be.
China now holds the importance of multilateral institutions and more than that of 1989. So it is significant and surprising that his government has admitted, in the frame of the most important multilateral institution, considering the use of lethal force for the suppression of a rebellion as a crime of which the leaders must answer.
It 's a major change. It is important to remember this statement to China when the Tibetans or the Muslim Xinjiang take to the streets next time. Before then, and before a new protest in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, we can not know how seriously to take this position. But it could be some sort of sign of maturity has reached a point where the increasing involvement of China in the world (Libya, there would be at least 30 000 Chinese workers) pushes her to take even more responsible positions. And maybe - just maybe - the time to react to internal dissent with the killing is over.
The surprise long-term scope by the events in Egypt, Tunisia and now in Libya, but has an impact in our distant future. Focuses on the implications of the possible and probable infection democratic revolutions in the large region of North Africa and the Middle East will lead the European Union. We should be patient in observing how far these revolutions, as we were in the first months after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. But, as then, reflect and plan in advance will be useful.
The EU has evolved through a series of ideas that, when they were proposed for the first time, had appeared improbable, then one day to become inevitable. The next idea like this could be the EU expansion to the south coast of the Mediterranean. Today, nobody expects such a development, whereas France, Germany and other European countries can not accept the idea of \u200b\u200bTurkey, which is already a democracy. But back to the early 90's: it quickly became clear that Western Europe had a great interest in sponsoring the stability and economic development of its neighboring former Soviet satellites, and made him into a long and slow process culminated with the full membership of ' EU for 10 of these countries, more than ten years later. Not all former "satellites" of the USSR are now democracies, not all, at least for now, have joined the EU. The same will happen probably in North Africa and the Middle East.
Yet, we must think about the parallels between the collapse of the Soviet lands on the eastern border of the EU, and the fall of the Arab dictatorships in the southern coast of the Mediterranean. Just as after 1989, even today the great historical interest and the opportunity that today's Arab awakening offers Europe will become clearer in the coming months and years, for better or for worse.
America's military in the region of complex dossiers, and will be held responsible for what will happen - or not happen - in Palestine. Europe, like in the post-1989, can offer particular cultural and economic ties, which have a more positive value. The European countries are already major trading partners of many North African countries: Italy, for example, is a leader with Libya and Algeria due to oil and gas. The logic of these links, along with fears of instability and mass migration, one can point to a long-term direction: some sort of form of EU membership for some North African countries.
More than full membership, as we see it today, it is a Union that provides for new forms of membership. At the bottom is already true today, as only some of the 27 are part of the euro or the Schengen area. So we will offer a new formula for economic integration, including a next time the trade and the single market, the democratic countries of North Africa, possibly without agreement by the time full freedom of movement of labor. All this will mean that the EU itself will have to change to new name could become the European Union and Mediterranean.
Without such a proposal, without a vision so long term, what can Europe offer to neodemocrazie North African and when will emerge? A little 'help, somewhere at the university. That's it. Yet after the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have to offer as an incentive for democratic reform, something very precious: the chance to join us.
seems difficult, even without mentioning Islam. But let's not forget that such a development would also make sense economically and politically to Europe. Mediterranean, if we look at its Latin root, means "the center of the earth 'and not' southern border." It was the center of our world for centuries. It is part of the European neighborhood. |
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